Publications by SMURPHS researchers Open access link Journal link

Sévellec, F. and B. Sinha, 2018: Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations, in Oxford Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Oxford University Press. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81

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Richard Allan, Jonathan Gregory, Andrew Meijers, Simon Josey, and Chunlei Liu; Met Office partners Patrick Hyder and Chris Roberts.(2018) Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors, Nature Communications, 9, 3625

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Sévellec, F. and S. S. Drijfhout, 2018: A Novel Probabilistic Forecast System Predicting Anomalously Warm 2018-2022 Reinforcing the Long-Term Global Warming Trend, Nature Communications, 9, 3024.

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Jones, D. C., Forget, G., Sinha, B., Josey, S. A., Boland, E. J. D., Meijers, A. J. S., & Shuckburgh, E. (2018). Local and remote influences on the heat content of the Labrador Sea: An adjoint sensitivity study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123, 2646‐2667. link link
Checa‐Garcia, R., Hegglin, M. I., Kinnison, D., Plummer, D. A., & Shine, K. P. (2018). Historical tropospheric and stratospheric ozone radiative forcing using the CMIP6 database Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 3264–3273 Link link
Reto Knutti, Maria A. A. Rugenstein and Gabriele C. Hegerl, Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity, Nature Geoscience, 10, 727–736 (2017). doi:10.1038/ngeo3017 [link]
Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D. and Joshi, M. (2017), Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations, RMetS Weather, 72: 323–329. doi:10.1002/wea.3174 [link] [link]
Jianglin Wang, Bao Yang, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Jürg Luterbacher, Timothy J. Osborn, Keith R. Briffa & Eduardo Zorita (2017), Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years, Nature Geoscience 10, 512–517 (2017), doi:10.1038/ngeo2962 [link]
Sévellec, F., A. V. Fedorov, and W. Liu (2017), Arctic sea ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change (2017) 7, 604-610, doi:10.1038/nclimate3353 [link]
Kajtar, J.B., Santoso, A., McGregor, S. et al. Clim Dyn (2017). Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3699-5 [link]
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M .Haywood, Andy Jones et al. (2017), Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions, Nature 546, 485–491, (22 June 2017), doi:10.1038/nature22974 [link]
Richard P. Allan (2017), Global energy budget: Elusive origin of warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, April 2017, doi:10.1038/nclimate3282 [link]
Allan, R.P. (2017), Decadal climate variability and the global energy balance, CLIVAR Exchanges/PAGES Magazine articles, vol. 25(1), 20-24, doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.20 [link]
Liu, C., Allan, R.P., M. Mayer, P. Hyder, N.G. Loeb , C.D. Roberts, M. Valdivieso, J. Edwards, P.-L. Vidale (2017) Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres 122, 6250-6272, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026616 [link] [link]
Germe, A., Sévellec, F., Mignot, J. et al. (2017), On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties, Clim Dyn (2017) 48: 353. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3078-7 [link]
Florian Sévellec and Alexey V. Fedorov (2017), Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State
Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model
, Journal of Climate, January 2017, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0323.1
Roberts, C. D., M. D. Palmer, R. P. Allan, D. G. Desbruyeres, P. Hyder, C. Liu, and D. Smith (2017), Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122, doi:10.1002/2016C012278. [link] [link]
Hawkins, E., P. Ortega, E. Suckling, A. Schurer, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, M. Joshi, T. Osborn, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Mignot, P. Thorne, and G. van Oldenborgh (2017) Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1 [link] [link]
Etminan, M., G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood, and K. P. Shine (2016) Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12,614–12,623, doi:10.1002/2016GL071930. [link] [link]
Sévellec, F., B. Sinha, and N. Skliris (2016) The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate, Geophysical Research Letters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8169–8177, doi:10.1002/2016GL068950 [link] [link]
R Checa-Garcia, K P Shine and M I Hegglin (2016) The contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent slowdown in global-mean temperature trends, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 9, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094018 [link] [link]
Susan Solomon, Diane J. Ivy, Doug Kinnison, Michael J. Mills, Ryan R. Neely III, Anja Schmidt (2016) Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer, Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6296, pp. 269-274, DOI: 10.1126/science.aae0061 [link]
Myles R. Allen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P Shine, Andy Reisinger, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert and Piers M. Forster (2016) New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants, Nature Climate Change, 6, 773–776 (2016), 10.1038/nclimate2998 [link]
Earlier publications by SMURPHS researchers Open access link Journal link
Loeb, N.G., H. Wang, A. Cheng, S. Kato, J.T. Fasullo, K.-M. Xu and R.P. Allan (2016) Observational Constraints on Atmospheric and Oceanic Cross-Equatorial Heat Transports: Revisiting the Precipitation Asymmetry Problem in Climate Models, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-015-2766-z [link] [link]
Ferraro AJ, Collins M, Lambert FH. (2015) A hiatus in the stratosphere?, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, pages 497-498, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2624. [link] [link]
Smith, D., R. P. Allan, A. C. Coward, R. Eade, P. Hyder, C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, and A. A. Scaif (2015) Earth’s energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2014GL062669 [link]
Marotzke J, Forster PM (2015) Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends, Nature, 517, pp.565-570. doi: 10.1038/nature14117 [link]




Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C. & Obrochta, S. P. (7 Aug 2015) Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 14, Pages 5974–5982. doi: 10.1002/2015GL064458 [link] [link]
C. D. Roberts, M. D. Palmer, D. McNeall & M. Collins (2015)
Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming, Nature Climate Change 5, 337–342 (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2531
Liu, C., Allan, R.P., P. Berrisford, M. Mayer, P. Hyder, N. Loeb, D. Smith, P.-L. Vidale, J. Edwards (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 9374-9389, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023264 [link] [link]
Drijfhout, S.S., Blaker, A.T., Josey, S.A., Nurser, A.J.G., Sinha, B. and Balmaseda, M.A. (2014) Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, (22) pp. 7868-7874. doi:10.1002/2014GL061456 [link]


S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O’Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason. Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221-11246, doi: doi:10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014 [link] [link]
Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith and P.-L. Vidale (2014)Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5588-5597. [link]
Bellouin, N., J. Rae, A. Jones, C. Johnson, J. Haywood, and O. Boucher. Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20206, doi:10.1029/2011JD016074, 2011. [link]
Gregory, J. M. and Forster, P. M., 2008. Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23105, doi: 10.1029/2008JD010405 [link]
DEEP-C relevant publication list