Can the so-called hiatus be described as an unlikely rogue event? Recent research by SMURPHS teams at National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and University of Southampton has analysed surface air temperature from 20 climate models to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges”, and has shown that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. In this study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, the SMURPHS team have analysed future climate scenarios and drawn conclusions suggesting that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify under a “business as usual” scenario. To read the full open access article:
Sévellec, F., B. Sinha, and N. Skliris (2016), The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8169–8177, doi:10.1002/2016GL068950.